I was wondering if the Real Estate Bubble Bursting and the general economic picture is effecting the 1st generation Camaro Market prices? I spoke with an after market vendor and he said his business was off 'year over year', due to the slumping economy. Any insight? and or ideas?

Thanks in advance for your insight and input.

I think I will hopefully drive mine ( when I get it done) no matter what the econemy is.

Ecomomy and sections run in 7 yr cycles..and major changes tend to intailly hit in Oct.
Markets go up, then stablise..if they go up and the more they become over valued, the bigger the drop or stablisation.
If u go back to the BIG depression in the 1890s u will see the 7 yr cycles, not strick because of the odd world war and stuff...

30 yrs of my Camaro from about 1980 cost $NZ 12000 upto $NZ 30,000 then the 87 crash down to $$900 climbed to 25000 by the late 1990s price stablised for a few yrs, then started to climb again around 2001/2 upto $65000 by late 2006 sort of leveled off till now...Sales are slowing ..rules of supply and demand I expect value to drop this time..rather than level off.
But the Camaro is part of the family...what it is worth means nothing because its not for sale....Well IF someone offered me 2x plus what its worth maybe???

If one is going to invest in cars realestate, shares futures art etc then one has to have a very good understanding of historical markets, and not be greedy, otherwise you will be the one holding the can on short term investments

I have heard business is off too. Heard it from a vendor and a top level restoration house. Usually the luxury items are the first thing people stop spending money on, or start selling in uncertain economic times. I assume most people's first gen Camaro's are a second car.

How bad is the market in various areas? In the San Francisco Bay Area homes still sell fairly quickly in the nice towns . Prices have not seemed to have dropped around here...... yet .

Median home prices are down in this area from 629K to 587K and more to come. 740K home purchased in the Niles district of Fremont in 2005 is now 701K:( This mess is just beginning.

I could buy 3 very nice houses for 700k!!! :yes:
and don't have to live in the Bay area... :)
Median home prices are down in this area from 629K to 587K and more to come. 740K home purchased in the Niles district of Fremont in 2005 is now 701K:( This mess is just beginning.

It is just a correction... it will take a while but will recover.

The Fed cut the intrest rate by .75 today that is huge. The economy is surely sputtering it would seem. The housing thing just drives me nuts. Many people bought houses they couldn't afford using the adjustable mortgages. In Phoenix there are so many houses on the market that can't be sold. A 24 month supply I thought I heard 54000 or something like that. At the auctions last week I was thinking that there were no more home equity loan buyers there!!!

I've noticed another recession-factor during the past 30 years or so (my adult-care-ing stage). A recession happens when the press says we are going to have a recession. Employers knee-jerk: There's a recession coming! You are laid-off! Kinda like gas prices. The press says that oil prices are going up. Reaction? The local gas station owner runs outside and raises the pump price instantly. Greed.
What our hobby needs is for one of us to start a blog. Then compile stories of oil going down. Hell, make it up! Forward the blog to gas station owners, refineries and even the press. Get them thinking 'lower' not 'higher'. Might work. Sure, it's fake, but so are the stories about prices going up. The media is controlling a lot of the modern economy. Them and companies that shipped their work to China!

Many people bought houses they couldn't afford using the adjustable mortgages.

I thought it was the balloon mortages that were/are the problem. That people can't afford the balloon payment when due.

Signs of American ressession devaploping where coming apparent around April 2007
The sub prime debackle just kicked it off ...
What happens in the American economy , the rest of the world follows.
Overesea banks Europe Asia etc all had used huge amonts to buy into the sub prime deal.. as these billions of dollars have to be written off this creates a shortage of credit ...hence no money to relend to the realestate markets, (think of money as a commodity like oil or a tooth pick) no money ...no buyers, no buyers laws of supply and demand kick in and prices adjust accordingly to that supply and deamand,
As share prces drop so does the 'savings' invested in the market (like as if your money saved in a bank, and the bank fault burns down ond only 80% of the money is now usable)
I mentioned the 7 yr cycles above, historically there is a 'crash' recovery then the next crash is a more of a leveling off...then 21 yr cycle tends to be another 'crash' another adjustment then at the 42yr a big crash. (unless a world war doesnt take place)
Fortunatly in NZ we do not have exposure to the sub prime debakle...and a heathly dollar, which means thu we to are having issues these are no where as great as all other international markets
Our realestate market has slowed down, which actions ( upping the wholesale bank rate)where taken from mid last yr when the writing was on the wall..which means prices remain reasonable stable but lower turnover and sale time increased a little under 50%.
Bottom line the US , EU, asia are all victums of bussiness short term greed and politaicans that are more afraid of that big bussiness and there salaries than actally doing what should be done to mininmise the fallout when the 7 yr cycles are due.

Sub prime leanding is lending money to people who cant afford to pay back the load ...espec when the S**** hits the fan...it all looks ok when things are climbing and booming, and that doesnt last for ever...the guys who start it off see a huge amont of money to be made in the short term, see the writing on the wall before they even start it... then bail out leaving the rest of the population to carry the can.

If Bush and his cronies had 1/2 a brain they would die of confussion...couldnt oragnise a pissup in a brewary

I've noticed another recession-factor during the past 30 years or so (my adult-care-ing stage). A recession happens when the press says we are going to have a recession. Employers knee-jerk: There's a recession coming! You are laid-off! Kinda like gas prices. The press says that oil prices are going up. Reaction? The local gas station owner runs outside and raises the pump price instantly. Greed.
What our hobby needs is for one of us to start a blog. Then compile stories of oil going down. Hell, make it up! Forward the blog to gas station owners, refineries and even the press. Get them thinking 'lower' not 'higher'. Might work. Sure, it's fake, but so are the stories about prices going up. The media is controlling a lot of the modern economy. Them and companies that shipped their work to China!

I agree 100%. "There is nothing to fear but fear itself "

Consumer confidence is in the toilet. Hence, the economy suffers. During the height of the housing bubble(late 2004/ early 2005), my house was worth @100k more than now. The "wealth effect" drove consumer confinence during the rosey times. If the consumer fears being laid off, or, their work hours possibly being reduced, guess what? Spending halts.
The mortgage mess is factored into this equation. In the old days, prior to 2006, if you could "fog a mirror", you got the loan. The lender took the position, " Hum....this applicant is a bad risk for a loan, but, with real estate prices increasing 10 to 15 % per year, in a few years the applicant would have a nice sum of equity, thus, not wanting to default on the loan". This thinking didn't work out the way the lending industry would have liked.

What does Bush have to do with the price of your camaro going up or down? Standard answer for a liberal or non-American. Blame Bush. Bottom line is these cars are not made any more and what is left will sustain it's value over time. It's supply and demand.....the supply dwindles every year while the demand will always come back.

This needs to be moved !

What does Bush have to do with the price of your camaro going up or down? Standard answer for a liberal or non-American. Blame Bush. Bottom line is these cars are not made any more and what is left will sustain it's value over time. It's supply and demand.....the supply dwindles every year while the demand will always come back.
Agree to a degree to the "supply and demand" effect but the economy still packs a whallop when people have any extra cash and are deciding what to do with it.

Also, I think that the net has had a huge impact on the classic car scene, more than we realize. Have seen this with a bud of mine whose sales have really dropped since so much more product has been made available through this source.

Then media coverages such as the J-B auction has its ripple effect as well.

Cap68

What does Bush have to do with the price of your camaro going up or down? Standard answer for a liberal or non-American. Blame Bush. Bottom line is these cars are not made any more and what is left will sustain it's value over time. It's supply and demand.....the supply dwindles every year while the demand will always come back.

I don't know how Bush got in this....but the general state of the nation,how we are viewed around the world(not to good rite now)and the confidence of the american people have alot to do with real estate,consumer spending and luxury items like our Camaros.When the general "feeling" in the air is uncertainty of the financial wellness and lack of confidence in our current administration(Bush)we all suffer.Thankfully,as history has shown,we will recover and continue to enjoy our hobby and rebuild lost equity in our homes....lets just pray it does'nt take to long to dig out of this one,because it's getting deeper by the minute....:(....

Agree to a degree to the "supply and demand" effect but the economy still packs a whallop when people have any extra cash and are deciding what to do with it.

Cap68

Especially when people THINK they have the extra cash but it is really more of a shadow wealth that has now disappeared as their equity vaporizes.

I think the soft real estate market will have an affect on classic car prices, especially so those cars with over inflated values.

I think however that since the 1st Gens are pretty much one of the most popular cars, this affect will be mitigated somewhat.

Also take into account that when the new Mustangs came out the values of old Mustangs shot up considerably. I think we will see the same thing with the older 1st and 2nd Gen Camaros, but to a lesser degree because of the economy.

But like prime Real-estate there is only some much to go around and while it might not be going up like it used to, it will again shortly.

As was already said, consumer confidence and the general economy drive the value of luxury items, such as our Camaros for instance.
Consumer confidence is extremely low right now, the housing bubble and the "correction" that followed compounded by predatory lending and buyers that didn't think the purchase through (too much house for their income, interest only loans, arms that are adjusting ever upward), the fact that the rate of inflation rose the sharpest it has in 17 years doesn't help, with incomes not nearly keeping up.
Bottom line people are watching their money not spending it on toys, thats essentially the reason for G.W.B. proposing the "rebates" to certain tax brackets (not poor people by the way) to encourage spending and try to stifle the recession that looms on the horizon.
Regardless of party affiliation, there is no denying consumer confidence is extremely low right now.

On a side note, now this right here is funny;
If Bush and his cronies had 1/2 a brain they would die of confusion...couldn't oragnize a pissup in a brewery
and sadly true in most peoples opinion.
And yeah, quit blaming Bush for the economy, after all what does the president have to do with the US economy....Don't worry, you guys that get so irritated with the "blaming of Bush" will surely have no problem blaming the next Democrat president for the same stuff.... :D

On a side note, now this right here is funny;
Quote:
If Bush and his cronies had 1/2 a brain they would die of confusion...couldn't oragnize a pissup in a brewery
LMAO im glad someone saw the humour

I thought it was the balloon mortages that were/are the problem. That people can't afford the balloon payment when due.

High credit risk (sub-prime) borrowers getting adjustable rate loans that started higher and went higher than low risk borrowers. They could barely afford the homes with the initial rate. Rising interest rates caused then to bail.

..........Don't worry, you guys that get so irritated with the "blaming of Bush" will surely have no problem blaming the next Democrat president for the same stuff.... :D

Wrong. Their excuse will be the "inherited mess was bigger than they thought". Even though they are all saying how they will fix things to get elected.:sad:

Wrong. Their excuse will be the "inherited mess was bigger than they thought". Even though they are all saying how they will fix things to get elected.:sad:

Without sending this directly to off topic, I suppose you believe only one party does this? Like Bush's excuse being inheriting the perceived inevitibly declining economy from the Clinton years? Only difference is my money is on the economy already being in the tank before the next president takes office. And besides, the "right" will still blame them, regardless of their excuse, like I said.
But whatever, bottom line is our current poor economy is going to affect luxury items, like our Camaros or any "toy".

Sorry I do not see a bad economy. I see people that bought houses that were too expensive and truly beyond their means. In fact I know some of them. I still get paid, I got a bonus this last year like I did the year before and year before etc. Yes my 401k and IRAs are down, but that is investing as I have experienced for 30 years. I try to set my life up so I live within my means. I own my Camaro for fun. It is not an investment at all. Not too many of us here can buy an investment grade vehicle, I would guess. What I see is a news media saying the word "recession" so often like it is a chant for rain.

Also Sean, you put those words in my mouth. I never said that or intimated that at all about only one party. You assume too much.:yes:

OK then, I guess you know what happens when one "assumes" ;)
My house was purchased within my means, I have a good job with medical and retirement, and I own my hotrods for pleasure too, but that doesn't change the fact that at minimum our economy is going through a serious "correction", and at worst heading for a full on recession. Our government even recognizes that hence the tax rebates that now appear to be certain to happen, issued to stimulate the economy, one does not need to "stimulate" a healthy economy.
I agree for the most part about the housing loan crisis, anybody that researched things closely before what is likely to be their largest purchase ever could see the offerings from many mortgage companies where a bad bet to take. That doesn't change the fact that many of the lending institutions were at minimum predatory in the pursuit of some of their clients, if that was OK to do the laws preventing usury and other forms of taking advantage of people that may or may not know better wouldn't be needed. It's not just credit happy Americans to blame for our current issues, but corrupt business as well.

Sorry I do not see a bad economy. I see people that bought houses that were too expensive and truly beyond their means. In fact I know some of them. I still get paid, I got a bonus this last year like I did the year before and year before etc. Yes my 401k and IRAs are down, but that is investing as I have experienced for 30 years. I try to set my life up so I live within my means. I own my Camaro for fun. It is not an investment at all. Not too many of us here can buy an investment grade vehicle, I would guess. What I see is a news media saying the word "recession" so often like it is a chant for rain.

Also Sean, you put those words in my mouth. I never said that or intimated that at all about only one party. You assume too much.:yes:
If you were one of the many losing there jobs currently you may have a different opinion. I am an independent contractor in Real Estate sales. I actually think this is good for the Real Estate market. We are already starting to see a warm up in the entry level market. (Around 200k here) Rent VS Mortgage payment are very close now where a year ago that same house would have been 300k. Speculation and loose lending practices was the problem along with loan fraud. One of the biggest issues now is getting financing. Fannie mae is now mandating a 5% down payment increase if the home you want to buy is in a Declining Market. So if you go to your lender and you qualify for a 90% loan to value mortagage. Then you go out and find your perfect house and it's in a declining market you now can only get 85%. That is going to affect most of the A paper full documentation loans.

What does Bush have to do with the price of your camaro going up or down? Standard answer for a liberal or non-American. Blame Bush. Bottom line is these cars are not made any more and what is left will sustain it's value over time. It's supply and demand.....the supply dwindles every year while the demand will always come back.

haha....I always play the game of blaming every problem I have on Haliburton! or Bush. I go back and forth.

For the car prices, I dunno about that Say out of all first gen camaros, they made 100,000 "desireable" ones. SS's, verts, Z's, etc. Now people are taking the 6-bangers and making them desireable by cloning the snot out of them, not to mention Dynacornhole throwing their bodies all over the marketplace as well. A good friend of mine is a long time midyear Vette guy, and he claims (probably rightfully so) that at anytime, there are more 427/435 horse midyear Vettes for sale than were ever made, and ALL have factory documentation, are original down to the air in the tires and a 1 owner cars.

How will you ever tell if your car is the real deal, or a worked over heap? With crooks getting better and better, I see the Camaro market really hitting a plateau unless you ARE the original owner if your car, and you have pictures of you and your wife at your wedding with the car, the kids in the back seat, pics of it on family vacation, etc and all the original documentation (which they are also getting GREAT at faking).

I would have to agree with Gary. Most of the people on here have given all their spare time to their dream car and could really care less about how much the market is affecting it. When you were sandblasting and seeing rust all over the place did you think should I junk this thing because I will not be able to recoup my $'s from this or did you say let's give her a new life? It's why we dig out metal slivers from our body parts at night. It's not about politics unless you are trying to flip them for a quick buck.

Wayto go guys, lets keep this civil.

I suppose if I was losing my job I would think differently. I have been fired before.:o

Yes this is a correction. That is the way most things go to find a median somehow. It has to happen. I have a saying: "trees don't grow to the sky". Cars, houses, stocks, nothing goes up forever. Well, except PG&E bills, cable TV, taxes. The fun stuff doesn't anyway.

I had a neighbor that lost their house. I talked to him a while back when a fence blew down. He told me he was a teacher and his wife a real estate salesperson. They had 2 "investment" houses that were killing them They tried to cut a fat hog. I would bet there is a lot of that going on now.

The last few years I look around and see 2 new cars in the driveway, 2 litle kids running around, a new house and I think dang ...... how could that many people swing that.

Without sending this directly to off topic, I suppose you believe only one party does this? Like Bush's excuse being inheriting the perceived inevitibly declining economy from the Clinton years?

There is no question that each incoming President inherits the effects from the previous administration's policies. There was nothing "perceived" about a declining economy when Clinton was exiting. It was in fact, declining. But that just happens, and I do give Bill credit for a nice long ride as far as the economy goes.

But I can't stress enough how biased media reporting of "gloom & doom" economy does effect the economy in a negative way. And people wonder why consumer confidence is low:sad:. When you have inflation in check, and the lowest unemployment rate in decades, paying off debt faster than projected...and then you take a poll and find that consumer confidence is low? Media.

Even now, all the positive things I just mentioned are still in play, but it's the housing market that pretty much single handedly has us at another crossroad. And it will pass....after a correction is made.

And as much as I'd like a $800 or $1600 check from Uncle Sam right now, it concerns me as to what will happen when we have less than ideal conditions concerning unemployment and inflation! The current admin. doesn't want to go out with a flailing economy...and the Dems are more than cooperative to help provide a stimulus package because they don't want to potentially walk into office with a struggling economy, as well as they don't want to be perceived as bad guys in an election year.



Yes this is a correction. That is the way most things go to find a median somehow. It has to happen.

Indeed.

There will always be a healthy market for our cars. It's just a question of whether or not the timing is more optimal for buyers............or sellers. As previously mentioned, the pendulum always swings back and forth.

Don't luxury items take Time and Money. With 80% of the 6 million baby boomers this year estimated to start early retirement. I would think that should effect the collector car industry as a whole in a positive way.

Don't know just throwing it out there.
67for/me

But I can't stress enough how biased media reporting of "gloom & doom" economy does effect the economy in a negative way. And people wonder why consumer confidence is low. When you have inflation in check, and the lowest unemployment rate in decades, paying off debt faster than projected...and then you take a poll and find that consumer confidence is low? Media.
No doubt the media can affect the perception of the consumer, but things are not quite as rosy as some would like us to believe, beyond the housing issues unemployment is in fact at a turning point and starting to rise especially in some areas, and inflation is definitely not in "check", it's risen at it's sharpest rate in 17 years, don't just take my word for it, check out current inflation and also how it relates to the increase of the average income in the US. The stock market uncertainty doesn't help matters either.
As for the Camaro question, I 100% agree, if you bought one because you love them, you won't care which is where I stand. If you bought one on speculation of profit, you are taking your chances like in any speculation, sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.... and I got no sympathy for them. :beers:

Don't luxury items take Time and Money. With 80% of the 6 million baby boomers this year estimated to start early retirement. I would think that should effect the collector car industry as a whole in a positive way.

Don't know just throwing it out there.
67for/me

Thats a good point, and could go either way IMO. More time possibly for the hotrod of their dreams, but also more uncertainty in the future of their finances which may make them tighten the purse strings a bit.

Sorry I do not see a bad economy. I see people that bought houses that were too expensive and truly beyond their means...
... Yes my 401k and IRAs are down, but that is investing as I have experienced for 30 years... I own my Camaro for fun...
... What I see is a news media saying the word "recession" so often like it is a chant for rain. :yes:

I agree with Gary :thumbsup:
We are still in a 'correction', and far from a "depression".
The problem with saying "resession" is - you don't know you've been in one until you out of one ...
A resession is usually declared after two (2) consecutive quarters - and you don't get that data until @6-10 months AFTER in has happened ...
The US GDP/GNP is still trending up, as it has constantly since 1950 (when your's truely was born ;) ) - that means our output has steadily risen for the last 50+ years with small 'Corrections' about every 7~9 years, like now ...

The folks in trouble out this way that are lossing their homes are/were in way over their heads to begin with.
Many lied on loan applications to qualify for home purchase prices they could not afford to retain if there was slight decrease in the homes value - and guess what, there was ...
Some signed on for "Adjustable" loans - I guess they expected them to 'adjust' down :noway: - now they can't afford the payments because they can't just refinance the loan (to make increased the payments) as there is little or no value left in the equity.
Some become "Up-side-down" in the value of the home (owe more than it is worth) and just bail - to let the bank(s) take the loss.
If you take all ALL of the forclosures forcasted and reported for the last few quarters of 2007 - it is still way below 1% of ALL loans on residential property in the US. And, as Gary said, a high percentage (37~40[+]% - depending on who's numbers you use) of those are "investor" loans — those made to buyers who do not plan to live in the house.

I've made my investments and I plan to stick with them long term - they will most likely return to their previous levels or increase - as they have over the years before.
I also continue to look for good bargains in this market - they are out there and the funds will be buying like crazy in the future also.
I can't forsee the market not correcting itself and returning to decent levels in the long run.
As will the economy - even Congress agrees with me :yes:
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSWAT00874820080123

Everyone seems to be worried about China.
The US GNP is @$37K per annum/per person - China is @$1~2K, and growing - but not really that fast for the 'adverage' person. Even 'if' they could magicly grow their economy by say 10% (highly unlikely) they would end up with @$90 more purchasing power per person per year (I know, it buys a lot of rice) - by contrast, if 'we' grow by @1%, we end with @$300+ more per year.
Last year we grew by @4.9% - you do the math ...
Our PPP (purchasing power) is still the highest in the world - by a bunch! We are @$10 (corrected) higher than the next closest, the EU.
Our GDP (gross domestic product) is still growing and rapidly approaching $15 billion a year - China's is - ummm, welllll - no one really knows :D
Their reported numbers are very suspect, many say they are just plain missleading - and wrong.
And those numbers are suspect in some ways, specially since all data has to now be forwarded to the 'Government' for accrual and publication - or to put it in their words;
"Traditional methods (you know, like those taught in business schools ;) )can be vulnerable to the effects of the human factor. In recent years more and more datas have been forwarded directly to the National Bureau of Statistics for collation. This helps to reduce humans intervention as far as possible... "
- or never let people assume 'their' data is correct, we will tell you when it is correct for 'us' ...
"The new data show a GDP estimated for 2004 (their fiqures tend to be released a little slowly ... ) some 16.8 percent higher than was previously recorded, the World Bank said in the news release. The new figures show that China's economy is the world's seventh largest" (right about in line with California's ;) ) ...
Even 'if' China's economy continues to grow as it is, it's population demographic is rapidly changing from a rural to a concentrated urban/city one. This is driving inflation (their gov. says it's in 'control' ;) ), intrest rates, and property costs sky-high - way faster than those here and in their nieghboring countries.

I'm not saying China hasn't and won't continue to become a player in the world market - they just have a long way to go to get anywhere near the others leading the way.
They need to constantly worry about what/how/when their populace will do under and about Communist rule in the future - remember the USSR ...
And they have to be very carefull in their political arena - many of their neighbors don't like them and will do all they can to keep them in check.

Oh, I own and enjoy my Camaro for fun also - if it's worth more someday maybe my kids will thank me :D

No doubt the media can affect the perception of the consumer, but things are not quite as rosy as some would like us to believe, beyond the housing issues unemployment is in fact at a turning point and starting to rise especially in some areas,

There are always "some" areas, but the national average remains rock solid.

and inflation is definitely not in "check", it's risen at it's sharpest rate in 17 years,....

"Rising at its sharpest rate in 17yrs" doesn't necessarily have relevance. If inflation has remained in check for 17yrs (which is kinda not normal...but good), then if it rises .0000000137% the NYT would surely have a front page caption reading, "Inflation rising at its fastest rate in 17yrs!!!". And it would be a factual statement, but not necessarily mean anything significant, put aside the fear it causes. But that's just for the sake of argument :).

Here's an interesting article about inflation, which was punlished only about 30 days ago, and I took it from the NYT :). I believe it's a pretty neutral opinion on the matter:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/16/opinion/16hassett.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

I am very impressed...
Damn near all the guys postng have there heads screwed on the right way...sure opinions vary, but it basically boils down ...if in the boom times one lives beyond there means...ie accepts the boom cant go for ever before a market correction and only goes as far as they can still afford their commitment when the leveling of happens you will be ok.
I have been investing since early 70s, had a few hard tmes, lost jobs, had to close busines/factory in the past...sure our hard times meant cutting back from prime eye steak to sirlion for a while, but never failed to pay a bill or met a committment, simply because never got greedy...always had cash as a back up and If we dont have the cash we dont buy it...buy on credit and u dont own it. Pay cash and you pay less, use credit and u pay more.
Right now, ecomony is tightening up, the missus wants to give up work for 3 yrs to study for a degree.. definately the wrong timing but what the hell...Sure will have to put one of my vintage resto projects on hold, (well stuff cant do myself,) go back to sirlion steak and put off our trip to the States, and the hardest part put off my new garage/workshop 9m x 12m (30x 40 ft)
And we can do this simply because we havnt over borrowed, have savings, and havnt been greedy or try to keep up with 'the joneses' ...'the jones' will not be able to do this and will get hit far harder than we will..because they borrowed money for their spa pool, new car, flash house(s) boats and house extenstions for the projector room.

I am very impressed...
Damn near all the guys postng have there heads screwed on the right way...sure opinions vary........

:thumbsup::thumbsup:

Don't luxury items take Time and Money. With 80% of the 6 million baby boomers this year estimated to start early retirement. I would think that should effect the collector car industry as a whole in a positive way.

Don't know just throwing it out there.
67for/me

I really don't think it it that bad. Bad was the late 30's when my great grandparents lost the family farm, with bread lines etc. happening. I see this frugality in my mother since she lived through those times. People like her could never understand why people would be irresponsible in buying houses they can't afford just because they could at one instantaneous interest rate. I see the same crap going on with department stores (Macy's, Gottschalk's). They cram advertisement into your face by mail and even by recorded phone calls. Buy, buy, buy for no reason other than to get 10% off to use the store credit card. Load em up. They make way more on interest and late payments than on the merchandise.

Don't forget who informs the public what is going on. News outlets. It is kind of like the kids who make trouble in school.......you never hear about the 99.9% of good ones. Same with the news. The bad stuff is interesting news. If more positive news was delivered and reports were more up beat that is how most things would happen. Of course there is always some bad out there, but why is it every day: THE RECESION IS COMING, THE RECESSION IS COMING". What can anyone really do about.

Don't forget who informs the public what is going on. News outlets.
In my exceriance they are months behind the 8 ball then they still get it wrong...
Then there is the realestate association figures well they talk up and fiddle figures to keep momentum (profits ) going...and the share brokers do the same
I get the base statical figures from the sources, same as the guys above..then run my own anylsis... then subscribe to financual advisors who dont have an profit interest having things go up and down...just to compare what I see to them... usually there reports are about a month after mine...
Except the 87 crash well I was wrong, they predicted about 4 weeks before that it was due in about 8 weeks...I reconed about 3 months, so we all got caught with our pants down...but since we where in the process of consolidating didnt get hit as hard most others..wrote off about $60,000 of paper money and put us back to where we where about 12 months previous...no big deal.

THE RECESION IS COMING, THE RECESSION IS COMING".
yeah makes good headlines...a recession is not a depression and as luded to above...yeah my old man went thru that..him and his old man hunting rabbits to put food on the table.
Then a recession is a drop in growth, which means not necceassry bad for joe public, it can only be a leveling off...the secret is knowing how big, how long and having the funds avalble to pick up a few bargans.

Thanks to everyone for your replies!!! I was just thinking of timing a sale and I guess that it doesn't matter that much is the consensus. So demand will continue for Camaro's, with some near term softening of prices?

Thanks Again to all for the insight opinions.

... just thinking of timing a sale and I guess that it doesn't matter that much is the consensus. So demand will continue for Camaro's, with some near term softening of prices?


Pretty much - but my Mustang friends are having a field day with the value of their cars going up 30~50% over the last few months :D
Seems that people are thinking - 'well, if I can't [and maybe never will be able to ] afford a CAMARO, then I might as well buy a Mustang ...'
That - or they are seeing the value (?) of those impounded "Eleanor" Musthingys in Texas and thinking they'll never find another one after those are crushed :D

The majority of people buy things with disposable income to truely enjoy and to enrich their lifes, and will not really worry about the future value.
Matter of fact, you almost figure they will have little to no investment/monetary value in most cases. If you [or your heir's ;) ] do profit slightly by something you got true enjoyment out of for years then all the better :thumbsup:

I believe most of us have something in common on this site - we have our cars to enjoy and enrichen our lives.
We drive them and enjoy them with our families and friends.
If I want to see a Manet, I go to a Museum - If I wanted to see a COPO, I'd go to a museum ;)

Oh, if you trying to figure out 'timing' to unload a car - I've found that 3rd quarter sales of disposable income items always seems easier.
1st quarter everyone is cautious and still paying holiday debt, 2nd qrt. everyone is paying their taxes, 3rd qrt people have recovered to some extent and can look at 'personal' purchases, 4th quarter can be good early one or if you selling something a family will/can enjoy prior to the last couple months of the year before the Christmas frenzy sets in ...

To bad 'Dreamweaver's' so busy lately - he'd love this thread :yes:

Part of me hopes the value of Camaros drops, I have mine insured for "replacement" which for a Z11 is crazy right now. I had in appraised a number of years ago for $12k, the most recent estimate of what it will be worth if is was finished right now is around $60k, and even that number is 4 months old so hard to tell what it is at the moment... My Dad and step-mother just emailed me pictures of one they saw for sale with an asking price of $80K! For a small-block at that! What we don't know is if it was a festival car... My insurance is getting nuts... Plus it scares the crap out of me that with these cars being so valuable and easy to steal that someone will help themselves to it. Yes, a security system/Lowjack/etc is in the plans, but does it take some of the enjoyment out of driving it? Since I have zero plans to sell it, I can wish that....

Does anyone else believe muscle cars in general are over-priced right now anyhow? I realize they aren't making more (well, they are, but you know what I mean! ;), but I watch the auctions and just shake my head... My dad must kick himself at times the cars he had with what they would be worth today: 57 Nomad, 66 SS396 Chevelle, 2 70 SS396 Chevelles (one with 4sp, bench seat, 375hp, etc) 67 Chevelle vert, etc...

I agree with Gary :thumbsup:
We are still in a 'correction', and far from a "depression".
The problem with saying "resession" is - you don't know you've been in one until you out of one ...
A resession is usually declared after two (2) consecutive quarters - and you don't get that data until @6-10 months AFTER in has happened ...
The US GDP/GNP is still trending up, as it has constantly since 1950 (when your's truely was born ;) ) - that means our output has steadily risen for the last 50+ years with small 'Corrections' about every 7~9 years, like now ...

The folks in trouble out this way that are lossing their homes are/were in way over their heads to begin with.
Many lied on loan applications to qualify for home purchase prices they could not afford to retain if there was slight decrease in the homes value - and guess what, there was ...
Some signed on for "Adjustable" loans - I guess they expected them to 'adjust' down :noway: - now they can't afford the payments because they can't just refinance the loan (to make increased the payments) as there is little or no value left in the equity.
Some become "Up-side-down" in the value of the home (owe more than it is worth) and just bail - to let the bank(s) take the loss.
If you take all ALL of the forclosures forcasted and reported for the last few quarters of 2007 - it is still way below 1% of ALL loans on residential property in the US. And, as Gary said, a high percentage (37~40[+]% - depending on who's numbers you use) of those are "investor" loans — those made to buyers who do not plan to live in the house.

I've made my investments and I plan to stick with them long term - they will most likely return to their previous levels or increase - as they have over the years before.
I also continue to look for good bargains in this market - they are out there and the funds will be buying like crazy in the future also.
I can't forsee the market not correcting itself and returning to decent levels in the long run.
As will the economy - even Congress agrees with me :yes:
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSWAT00874820080123

Everyone seems to be worried about China.
The US GNP is @$37K per annum/per person - China is @$1~2K, and growing - but not really that fast for the 'adverage' person. Even 'if' they could magicly grow their economy by say 10% (highly unlikely) they would end up with @$90 more purchasing power per person per year (I know, it buys a lot of rice) - by contrast, if 'we' grow by @1%, we end with @$300+ more per year.
Last year we grew by @4.9% - you do the math ...
Our PPP (purchasing power) is still the highest in the world - by a bunch! We are @$10 (corrected) higher than the next closest, the EU.
Our GDP (gross domestic product) is still growing and rapidly approaching $15 billion a year - China's is - ummm, welllll - no one really knows :D
Their reported numbers are very suspect, many say they are just plain missleading - and wrong.
And those numbers are suspect in some ways, specially since all data has to now be forwarded to the 'Government' for accrual and publication - or to put it in their words;
"Traditional methods (you know, like those taught in business schools ;) )can be vulnerable to the effects of the human factor. In recent years more and more datas have been forwarded directly to the National Bureau of Statistics for collation. This helps to reduce humans intervention as far as possible... "
- or never let people assume 'their' data is correct, we will tell you when it is correct for 'us' ...
"The new data show a GDP estimated for 2004 (their fiqures tend to be released a little slowly ... ) some 16.8 percent higher than was previously recorded, the World Bank said in the news release. The new figures show that China's economy is the world's seventh largest" (right about in line with California's ;) ) ...
Even 'if' China's economy continues to grow as it is, it's population demographic is rapidly changing from a rural to a concentrated urban/city one. This is driving inflation (their gov. says it's in 'control' ;) ), intrest rates, and property costs sky-high - way faster than those here and in their nieghboring countries.

I'm not saying China hasn't and won't continue to become a player in the world market - they just have a long way to go to get anywhere near the others leading the way.
They need to constantly worry about what/how/when their populace will do under and about Communist rule in the future - remember the USSR ...
And they have to be very carefull in their political arena - many of their neighbors don't like them and will do all they can to keep them in check.

Oh, I own and enjoy my Camaro for fun also - if it's worth more someday maybe my kids will thank me :D

YES!!!!!!!!!
I agree completely!
SOOOO many people bought homes they could only afford doing interest only, stated, etc, saying "oh, I'll get a raise of 10k next year, or my promotion comes next year, with that I'll make an extra 20k ann."
Yeah, right. Nothing is guaranteed folks.
They are the ones that buried themselves. Then they claim, "I didn't know what the payment was gonna be!" Ya, right. My loan officers have to disclose and explain so many things it's so pathetic to hear peeps saying that. -- Then to have govt bail all this out? Geez. It's called market correction. Harsh. Yes. But true.

The media? Easy.

Bad news sells. Gets ratings. Spin & sensationalism sells. Which equals advertising $$$$$$$$!
Happy stories about rainbows and bubble blowing and touchy-feely stuff put viewers to sleep. Getting people all stirred up and upset and talking is what is driving them. Negativity sells. So easy to be negative.

Funny, my new home prices where I sell have crept up a few grand, but the news won't touch me, 'cause it's good news. Nobody cares.

And I bought my Camaro 'cause I love that car. It's part of the family now. Not selling till I'm dead. Hammer on it, break it, rebuild it, etc....it's my hobby. Much better than sitting in a bar drinking wasting away talking 'bout memories nobody cares about!

Some where above some askes when is the best time to sell the camaro...
Weelll that depends who u are asking...
Since most of the ppl here will die with their camaro (s) or would like to have one to die with...
Then the best time is in the middle of a ressecition when prices are leveled or down.
Then someone like the guys here an get it at a good entry price.

On the other hand iif asking an investor, they will also say in the middle of e resecsion...because they to are looking for bottom basement investments.

But like all 'investments' then one sells at the peak, which generally means figuring out when the peak is and selling just as prices level are still rainsing but levelling off or just after...its easier to sell still on the rising market close to the top because their are more idoits out there who think prices will go up forever.
This is where not just looking at value increases but ave time it takes to sell, and ave sales per week/month.
The guys who do well dont tell u how much behind the seinces work actually goes into reseach and keeping up with the market...

Right now I recon the NZ market for classic cars is just over the peak with prices still at the max...US somewhere close...
What is confusing the US market future is the drop n interest rates when there are strong household inflationary pressures in the energy and food areas, plus the droppng us $...dropping interest rates thu keeps heaps of ppl happy on the short term, doesnt do anything at all for the mid term in the US...who ever gets in at the main elections in the US will have some very unpopular calls to make...Thats if they have the political guts to do it... Bit of the old "caught between the ocean and deep blue sea"

.....To bad 'Dreamweaver's' so busy lately - he'd love this thread :yes:

You have NO Idea! All I can say is I probably won't see the light of day for at least another month. I see 16+ hour days, 7 days a week, and that's only if I'm lucky.

I saw this thread when it first opened and literally it's been about the only thing I have looked at on the internet, let alone on this site, for the last couple of days. After this post I'm off to bed.

Here's how I see it from my jaded perspective: We are up to our necks in a recession. Maybe it's just my local economic microcosm but I don't think so. I live in Stanislus County in California. We are the number 3 county in the USA for foreclosures. To the north of me is San Joaquin County... thy are number 2. To the south is Merced County... #1 (ya gotta be first in something, eh?). With that said, business sucks:D. I sell disposable income items - hot tubs, stoves and fireplaces,swimming pools, etc. I have been doing it for almost 24 years, and I have never seen anything remotely like what I have seen in the last 18 months. Beginning in June of 2006 we started to see a radical drop in business. My business didn't change --- been in the same location, same products, etc. for over 20 years. My employees are the best, service unmatched, product superior, reputation near perfection, yada, yada. All of a sudden we see a 50% drop in business in June of 2006. Going into that month I was up 7% for the year... I finished the year down over 33%. 2007 was more of the same, but we weren't down quite as drastically.

Last week I went to an international conference with over 400 dealers. I can tell you that across the board, with a few exceptions, every market is down. People are not just not spending money... they aren't even shopping. Traffic counts are down across the board. In our store our traffic is off over 60% from where it was 2 years ago. Projections are that, at best, business might begin to pick up by the third quarter of this year.

For over a year I have been keeping myself fine tuned to local as well as national economic trends, across industries, different markets, and with every demographic imaginable. While there are some industries that are fairing well, the overwhelming trend is that a much larger percent of our GNP is being consumed outside of the US than at any point in our recent history. Part of the lack of demand can be attributed to reduced buying power of those whose wages have been unable to keep up with inflation, a devalued dollar, rising fuel and utility bills, etc. Thus begins the "Fear Cycle", and it has a domino effect. Bad news travels fast, and fear is contagious. As the cycle picks up momentum it takes it's toll exponentially and before you know it everyone is freaked out. No one wants to "consume" and they try to just hang on to what they have.

I have more to say but I have to go now. I have a heaping plate of baked doom and gloom my wife just cooked up and it's starting to get cold... wouldn't want it to go to waste. I'll try to catch up later:hurray:.

P.S. - Anyone know a good crash course in Accounting? My bookkeeper bailed on me with a 2 day notice and I am in need of an "Accounting Intervention". :D --- When it rains, it pours. Cheers:D